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portada Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers
Type
Physical Book
Author
Publisher
Year
2021
Language
English
Pages
572
Format
Paperback
Dimensions
20.9x14.1x3.5 cm
Weight
0.51 kg.
ISBN13
9780393541984
Categories

Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers

Mervyn King (Author) · John Kay (Author) · W. W. Norton & Company · Paperback

Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers - Kay, John ; King, Mervyn

New Book Imported to South Africa
Delivery: 16 Nov - 25 Nov Shipping: 13 to 15 business days.
R 380
R 380

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Synopsis "Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers "

Some uncertainties are resolvable. The insurance industry's actuarial tables and the gambler's roulette wheel both yield to the tools of probability theory. Most situations in life, however, involve a deeper kind of uncertainty, a radical uncertainty for which historical data provide no useful guidance to future outcomes. Radical uncertainty concerns events whose determinants are insufficiently understood for probabilities to be known or forecasting possible. Before President Barack Obama made the fateful decision to send in the Navy Seals, his advisers offered him wildly divergent estimates of the odds that Osama bin Laden would be in the Abbottabad compound. In 2000, no one--not least Steve Jobs--knew what a smartphone was; how could anyone have predicted how many would be sold in 2020? And financial advisers who confidently provide the information required in the standard retirement planning package--what will interest rates, the cost of living, and your state of health be in 2050?--demonstrate only that their advice is worthless.The limits of certainty demonstrate the power of human judgment over artificial intelligence. In most critical decisions there can be no forecasts or probability distributions on which we might sensibly rely. Instead of inventing numbers to fill the gaps in our knowledge, we should adopt business, political, and personal strategies that will be robust to alternative futures and resilient to unpredictable events. Within the security of such a robust and resilient reference narrative, uncertainty can be embraced, because it is the source of creativity, excitement, and profit.

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